Our hearts and
prayers go out to the people of Ukraine, as they undergo both an internal
political crisis and what appears to be military intervention from Russia. For people of a certain age, the current
events, with tanks rolling across the Russian border into a neighboring nation
that wants to exercise its freedom, it feels a bit like the Cold War days all
over again.
Whenever we see troop movements and fires raging in the streets
of a capitol city the size of Chicago, our instinct is to assume the worst and
move our money to the sidelines. But is
this really the best strategy? Some
commentators see any market downturn as a buying opportunity, since stocks are
going on sale simply because of unfounded fear of economic aftershocks.
Here are some facts that you might not know about what has,
hitherto, been a relatively quiet new member of the world economic
community.
1) The word "Ukraine" means "borderland" in
proto-Slavic. It appears to have
acquired this name simultaneously from Poland, Austria and Russia, referring to
the territory that sits across the border of so many European nations and
Russia. In fact, the Polish referred to
their troops stationed in this area as Ukranians--that is, borderlanders. Since the country became independent from the
Soviet Union, it is no longer referred to internationally as "The
Ukraine."
2) Ukraine's currency is the hryvnia, adopted in 1996 after the
country suffered the greatest one-year bout of hyperinflation in global
economic history. (Zimbabwe has since
broken the record.) Today, one dollar
will buy 9.6 hryvnias. A euro will buy
13.3 of them.
3) After Russia, Ukraine has the largest military presence in
Europe. Ukrainian troops have been
deployed as part of international peacekeeping missions in Somalia, Kosovo,
Lebanon and Sierra Leone, and has engaged in multinational military exercises
with U.S. military forces. NATO has
accepted Ukraine as a member pending a national referendum on the matter--which
will obviously be delayed until the conflict with Russia has played itself out.
4) Ukraine has one of the world's most active space
programs. The National Space Agency of
Ukraine has launched six self-made satellites and a total of 101 launch
vehicles. The country also manufactures
the An-225 aircraft, the largest aircraft ever built.
5) Due to low birth rates, Ukraine's population is declining at
the sixth fastest rate in the world, behind the Cook Islands, the Federated
States of Micronesia, the Northern Mariana Islands, Niue (an island nation in
the South Pacific) and the Eastern European nation of Moldavia, which borders
Ukraine.
6) Nevertheless, Ukraine's largest city, Kiev, has a higher
population (2.8 million) than Chicago, America's third-largest city. The population of Kharkiv, Ukraine's
second-largest city (1.4 million), is greater than San Antonio, San Diego and
Dallas, America's seventh, eighth and ninth most populous cities.
7) According to the World Bank, Ukraine's economy is the 51st
largest in the world, ranking just behind Peru and the Czech Republic,a nd just
ahead of Romania and New Zealand. But
its $7,295 (US) per-capita income (a rough measure of a nation's wealth) ranks
106th in the world, behind Namibia and El Salvador and ahead of Algeria,
Micronesia and Iraq.
8) Ukraine co-hosted the Euro 2012 football (soccer) tournament
(with Poland), which is one of the major sporting events in Europe.
9) Even though the Chernobyl nuclear disaster occurred in Kiev,
Ukraine operates the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.
10) Despite comments that Ukraine is divided between ethnic
Ukrainians and Russia, 77.8% of the population is ethnic Ukraine, and only
17.3% is Russian.
11) Ukraine is known as the "breadbasket of Europe"
for good reason. The country is the
world's fourth largest producer of barley, 5th largest producer of rye, 11th
largest producer of wheat, the 6th largest producer of oats and the 9th largest
producer of soybeans.
12) Russia sells approximately 80% of its oil and gas exports to
the European Union through pipelines that pass directly through Ukraine. The European Union receives 25% of its oil
and gas from Russian sources through these conduits.
13) Ukraine also happens to be Russia's second-largest customer
of petro-fuels.
14) Russia is drilling for oil in the shallow waters of the
Black Sea near the Crimean Peninsula, which shows promise of having significant
reserves.
15) Among others drilling in the same area: Chevron and Shell
Oil. If they begin production under the
Ukrainian flag, it would significantly undercut Russia's oil and gas market
share and prices, simultaneously boosting Ukraine's economy.
16) When the Russians (as
the Soviet Union) invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the U.S. and many Western
nations boycotted the 1980 Olympic games, which were hosted in Russia. Is it interesting that Russia decided to move
forces into Ukraine immediately AFTER the Sochi Olympics were finished?
17) Among the most likely responses to the Russian/Ukrainian
crisis is the cancellation of the upcoming G8 summit in Sochi. Another possible response might remove Russia
from the G8 club. This would embarrass
Russian strongman Vladimir Putin at home and isolate him (and Russia's economy)
abroad.
19) Russia's economy
could be the big loser in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis. Share prices for companies based in Russia
declined by 10 percent the day after mysterious soldiers took over the Crimean
peninsula, also triggering an outflow of domestic currency that Russia
desperately needs to invest in modernizing an economy largely (today) based on
selling abroad what is pumped or mined out of the ground.
20) The threat of disruption of trade between Western nations
and Russia (either due to sanctions or reluctance to deal with a country that
doesn't seem to be focused on following international law) cost the Russian
economy $60 billion in a matter of days--more than the total cost to stage the
Sochi Olympics.
21 (bonus) Let's assume that we are not headed toward a world
war. Several commentators have
unhelpfully pointed out that the Crimea became the flashpoint for World War I,
but the world is somewhat different today.
There could be some impact from higher energy prices in Europe if the Ukraine
pipelines are disrupted temporarily, but Russia needs to sell its oil and gas
as much as Europe needs to buy it.
Unless someone is heavily invested in Russian stocks, the crisis will
likely be seen as a portfolio non-event.
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