Are Daughters a Better "Investment?"

As Father's Day passes, a new survey from the online account aggregation firm Yodlee.com and Harris Interactive tells us that the financial relationship between fathers (and parents) can be very different for their sons vs. their daughters.  The survey found that an astonishing 75% of young adult men (age 18-34) are receiving financial aid from their parents, compared with 59% for comparable age daughters.  The financial dependency extends deep into adulthood; among sons aged 35-44, fully 32% are still living at home, while only 9% of women in that age bracket sleep in their former bedroom.  Even those numbers understate the disparity, because more than a third of the women who are living with their parents are doing so to support them in old age, something that sons are, according to the report, far less likely to do.

Overall, daughters are 32% less likely to need their parents' money, and twice as likely to move back home because they're unemployed.  By age 45, the survey found, most of these stark differences in financial independence have faded; sons lag only a few percentage points behind daughters in these two areas.  But then a new discrepancy emerges.  The survey found that older sons are half as likely as daughters to support their parents in old age. 

60 Minutes - Michael Lewis - The stock market is rigged!

What??!  The Stock Market is Rigged???

You may have heard about the 60 Minutes interview with author Michael Lewis, a former Wall Street broker, author of "Liar's Poker" and "The Big Short," who has just come out with a new book entitled "Flash Boys."  Lewis is an eloquent and astute critic of Wall Street's creative and predatory practices, and in his new book (and in the 60 Minutes interview March 30, 2014) he offers evidence that the stock market is "rigged" by a cabal of high-frequency traders, abetted by stock exchanges and Wall Street firms.

The charge is entirely true.  And it is also completely irrelevant to you and anyone else who practices patient investing.

Lewis is exposing a secret advantage that a surprisingly large number of professional traders, employed by large brokerage firms, are able to get when they build high-speed fiber optic cable feeds directly into the computers that match buyers and sellers of securities.  Some of those traders actually have their trading computers located in the same room as the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq servers.  And some pay extra for access to more information on who wants to buy and sell, more quickly, than would be available to you if you were sitting down at your home computer looking to buy or sell Apple Computer through a discount brokerage account. 

All of this is perfectly legal, but Lewis points out that it is also shady.  Why should some buyers and sellers have millisecond advantages over others?  The companies that see more of the market, more quickly, are able to jump in ahead of you and me and buy stocks at lower intraday prices, and then jump ahead 15 seconds later and sell to the highest bidder before you and I would even see that bid on our screen.  They can buy the stock you put in an order for and sell it to you at a fractionally higher price through the normal market-matching mechanisms.  This way, they can squeeze out additional pennies and nickels on each transaction, and if they do this thousands of times a day, it adds up to real money--millions of dollars a year.

Why is this irrelevant to you?  Many of those lost dollars are coming out of the pockets of day traders, ordinary people who are foolish enough to think that they can outwit the markets by moving into and out of individual stocks several times a day, or professional traders at hedge funds who may not have access to the fastest server or a direct feed into the Nasdaq servers.  There are tens of thousands of these investors, and many of them, watching the 60 Minutes report, discovered for the first time that they are getting routinely fleeced by Wall Street's money machine. 

However, if you're invested for the long term, it really doesn't matter how many times the stocks you own inside of a mutual fund or ETF, or directly in your retirement account, change hands or at what price every few minutes.  It doesn't even matter whether your stocks are up or down in any given month or year, so long as the underlying companies are building their value steadily over time.  Your time frame is eons compared with the quick-twitch traders, who hope to be in and out of your stock in minutes rather than decades.  Your mutual fund that buys when a stock seems cheap might, if it's careless or unsophisticated, give up fractions of a cent on its purchases, but that likely isn't going to have a measurable impact on your long-term investment returns.

Somehow, this important fact was lost in the 60 Minutes interview.  The interview also didn't mention that things can go horribly wrong in the arcane and predatory world of rapid-fire trading.  The Hall of Fame of trading losses includes $9 billion lost in credit default swaps by a single Morgan Stanley trader from 2004 through 2006, or the $7.2 billion lost by Societe Generale trader Jerome Kerviel over a few days in 2008, or the $2 billion "London whale" losses in 2012.  They--and many others--used their milliseconds speed advantage to generate staggering losses, proving that even the smartest operators aren't always raking in the profits.

In the end, the interview tells us several things.  First, it exposes, yet again, the fact that the Wall Street culture will go to great lengths to grab money out of the hands of unwary investors.  One wishes that the 60 Minutes interviewers had asked a simple question: what economic purpose is served by fast-twitch traders, trying to make money for their wirehouse employers by purchasing and selling individual stocks multiple times a day ahead of other investors?  Is this benefiting the economy in some way?

Second, the interview makes plainly clear the folly of an average investor trying to outsmart the markets with short-term trading activities. 

And finally, for those who can see the big picture that is never explained in the 60 Minutes interview, these revelations confirm the wisdom of having a long-term investment horizon.  When you measure returns over three-to-ten year time horizons, the milliseconds don't matter.

However, I have bought and am reading the book!

20 things you probably don't know about the Russian incursion into the Ukraine!

Our hearts and prayers go out to the people of Ukraine, as they undergo both an internal political crisis and what appears to be military intervention from Russia.  For people of a certain age, the current events, with tanks rolling across the Russian border into a neighboring nation that wants to exercise its freedom, it feels a bit like the Cold War days all over again.

Whenever we see troop movements and fires raging in the streets of a capitol city the size of Chicago, our instinct is to assume the worst and move our money to the sidelines.  But is this really the best strategy?  Some commentators see any market downturn as a buying opportunity, since stocks are going on sale simply because of unfounded fear of economic aftershocks.

Here are some facts that you might not know about what has, hitherto, been a relatively quiet new member of the world economic community. 

1) The word "Ukraine" means "borderland" in proto-Slavic.  It appears to have acquired this name simultaneously from Poland, Austria and Russia, referring to the territory that sits across the border of so many European nations and Russia.  In fact, the Polish referred to their troops stationed in this area as Ukranians--that is, borderlanders.  Since the country became independent from the Soviet Union, it is no longer referred to internationally as "The Ukraine."

2) Ukraine's currency is the hryvnia, adopted in 1996 after the country suffered the greatest one-year bout of hyperinflation in global economic history.  (Zimbabwe has since broken the record.)  Today, one dollar will buy 9.6 hryvnias.  A euro will buy 13.3 of them.

3) After Russia, Ukraine has the largest military presence in Europe.  Ukrainian troops have been deployed as part of international peacekeeping missions in Somalia, Kosovo, Lebanon and Sierra Leone, and has engaged in multinational military exercises with U.S. military forces.  NATO has accepted Ukraine as a member pending a national referendum on the matter--which will obviously be delayed until the conflict with Russia has played itself out.

4) Ukraine has one of the world's most active space programs.  The National Space Agency of Ukraine has launched six self-made satellites and a total of 101 launch vehicles.  The country also manufactures the An-225 aircraft, the largest aircraft ever built.

5) Due to low birth rates, Ukraine's population is declining at the sixth fastest rate in the world, behind the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Northern Mariana Islands, Niue (an island nation in the South Pacific) and the Eastern European nation of Moldavia, which borders Ukraine.

6) Nevertheless, Ukraine's largest city, Kiev, has a higher population (2.8 million) than Chicago, America's third-largest city.  The population of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city (1.4 million), is greater than San Antonio, San Diego and Dallas, America's seventh, eighth and ninth most populous cities.

7) According to the World Bank, Ukraine's economy is the 51st largest in the world, ranking just behind Peru and the Czech Republic,a nd just ahead of Romania and New Zealand.  But its $7,295 (US) per-capita income (a rough measure of a nation's wealth) ranks 106th in the world, behind Namibia and El Salvador and ahead of Algeria, Micronesia and Iraq.

8) Ukraine co-hosted the Euro 2012 football (soccer) tournament (with Poland), which is one of the major sporting events in Europe.

9) Even though the Chernobyl nuclear disaster occurred in Kiev, Ukraine operates the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

10) Despite comments that Ukraine is divided between ethnic Ukrainians and Russia, 77.8% of the population is ethnic Ukraine, and only 17.3% is Russian.

11) Ukraine is known as the "breadbasket of Europe" for good reason.  The country is the world's fourth largest producer of barley, 5th largest producer of rye, 11th largest producer of wheat, the 6th largest producer of oats and the 9th largest producer of soybeans.

12) Russia sells approximately 80% of its oil and gas exports to the European Union through pipelines that pass directly through Ukraine.  The European Union receives 25% of its oil and gas from Russian sources through these conduits.

13) Ukraine also happens to be Russia's second-largest customer of petro-fuels.

14) Russia is drilling for oil in the shallow waters of the Black Sea near the Crimean Peninsula, which shows promise of having significant reserves.

15) Among others drilling in the same area: Chevron and Shell Oil.  If they begin production under the Ukrainian flag, it would significantly undercut Russia's oil and gas market share and prices, simultaneously boosting Ukraine's economy.

16)  When the Russians (as the Soviet Union) invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the U.S. and many Western nations boycotted the 1980 Olympic games, which were hosted in Russia.  Is it interesting that Russia decided to move forces into Ukraine immediately AFTER the Sochi Olympics were finished?

17) Among the most likely responses to the Russian/Ukrainian crisis is the cancellation of the upcoming G8 summit in Sochi.  Another possible response might remove Russia from the G8 club.  This would embarrass Russian strongman Vladimir Putin at home and isolate him (and Russia's economy) abroad.

19)  Russia's economy could be the big loser in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis.  Share prices for companies based in Russia declined by 10 percent the day after mysterious soldiers took over the Crimean peninsula, also triggering an outflow of domestic currency that Russia desperately needs to invest in modernizing an economy largely (today) based on selling abroad what is pumped or mined out of the ground.

20) The threat of disruption of trade between Western nations and Russia (either due to sanctions or reluctance to deal with a country that doesn't seem to be focused on following international law) cost the Russian economy $60 billion in a matter of days--more than the total cost to stage the Sochi Olympics.

21 (bonus) Let's assume that we are not headed toward a world war.  Several commentators have unhelpfully pointed out that the Crimea became the flashpoint for World War I, but the world is somewhat different today.  There could be some impact from higher energy prices in Europe if the Ukraine pipelines are disrupted temporarily, but Russia needs to sell its oil and gas as much as Europe needs to buy it.  Unless someone is heavily invested in Russian stocks, the crisis will likely be seen as a portfolio non-event.